Adaptive load forecasting of the Hellenic electric grid

dc.contributor.author	Παππάς, Στυλιανός Σ.	el
dc.contributor.author	Οικονόμου, Λάμπρος	el
dc.contributor.author	Μούσας, Βασίλειος Χ.	el
dc.contributor.author	Καράμπελας, Παναγιώτης	el
dc.contributor.author	Κατσικάς, Σωκράτης Κ.	el
dc.date.accessioned	2015-06-06T17:04:03Z
dc.date.available	2015-06-06T17:04:03Z
dc.date.issued	2015-06-06
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11400/15343
dc.rights	Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/	*
dc.source	http://link.springer.com/article/10.1631%2Fjzus.A0820042	el
dc.subject	Measurement
dc.subject	Parameter estimation
dc.subject	seasonal variation
dc.subject	Adaptive multi-model filtering
dc.subject	Προσαρμοστικό πολυτροπικό φιλτράρισμα
dc.subject	ARIMA
dc.subject	Kalman filter
dc.subject	Φίλτρο Kalman
dc.subject	Load forecasting
dc.subject	Πρόβλεψη φορτίου
dc.subject	Μέτρηση
dc.subject	Order selection
dc.subject	Επιλογή παραγγελίας
dc.subject	Προσδιορισμός παραμέτρων
dc.subject	Εποχιακή διακύμανση
dc.title	Adaptive load forecasting of the Hellenic electric grid	en
heal.type	journalArticle
heal.classification	Engineering
heal.classification	Computer science
heal.classification	Μηχανική
heal.classification	Πληροφορική
heal.classificationURI	http://skos.um.es/unescothes/C01363
heal.classificationURI	http://skos.um.es/unescothes/C00750
heal.classificationURI	N/A-Μηχανική
heal.classificationURI	N/A-Πληροφορική
heal.keywordURI	http://zbw.eu/stw/descriptor/19033-4
heal.keywordURI	http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85097853
heal.keywordURI	http://lod.nal.usda.gov/57468
heal.identifier.secondary	ISSN: 1673565X
heal.identifier.secondary	DOI: 10.1631/jzus.A0820042
heal.access	campus
heal.recordProvider	Τ.Ε.Ι. Αθήνας. Σχολή Τεχνολογικών Εφαρμογών. Τμήμα Πολιτικών Μηχανικών Τ.Ε και Μηχανικών Τοπογραφίας & Γεωπληροφορικής Τ.Ε.	el
heal.publicationDate	2008-12-03
heal.bibliographicCitation	Pappas, S., Ekonomou, L., Moussas, V., Karampelas, P. and Katsikas, S. (2008). Adaptive load forecasting of the Hellenic electric grid. "Journal of Zhejiang University: Science A", 9(12), 3 December 2008. pp. 1724-1730. Available from: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1631%2Fjzus.A0820042.	en
heal.abstract	Designers are required to plan for future expansion and also to estimate the grid’s future utilization. This means that an effective modeling and forecasting technique, which will use efficiently the information contained in the available data, is required, so that important data properties can be extracted and projected into the future. This study proposes an adaptive method based on the multi-model partitioning algorithm (MMPA), for short-term electricity load forecasting using real data. The grid’s utilization is initially modeled using a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. The proposed method uses past data to learn and model the normal periodic behavior of the electric grid. Either ARMA (autoregressive moving average) or state-space models can be used for the load pattern modeling. Load anomalies such as unexpected peaks that may appear during the summer or unexpected faults (blackouts) are also modeled. If the load pattern does not match the normal behavior of the load, an anomaly is detected and, furthermore, when the pattern matches a known case of anomaly, the type of anomaly is identified. Real data were used and real cases were tested based on the measurement loads of the Hellenic Public Power Cooperation S.A., Athens, Greece. The applied adaptive multi-model filtering algorithm identifies successfully both normal periodic behavior and any unusual activity of the electric grid. The performance of the proposed method is also compared to that produced by the ARIMA model.	en
heal.publisher	SP Zhejiang University Press	en
heal.journalName	Journal of Zhejiang University: Science A	en
heal.journalType	peer-reviewed
heal.fullTextAvailability	true