Predicting multi-cohorts’ customer retention using limited information

dc.contributor.author	Γιοβάνης, Απόστολος Ν.	el
dc.contributor.author	Φράγκος, Χρήστος Κ. (1949-)	el
dc.contributor.author	Παπαθανασίου, Δημήτρης	el
dc.date.accessioned	2015-01-31T17:53:10Z
dc.date.available	2015-01-31T17:53:10Z
dc.date.issued	2015-01-31
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11400/5264
dc.rights	Αναφορά Δημιουργού-Μη Εμπορική Χρήση-Όχι Παράγωγα Έργα 3.0 Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/	*
dc.subject	Κράτηση
dc.subject	Ανομοιογένεια
dc.subject	Λανθάνουσα τάξη μοντέλα επιβίωσης
dc.subject	Retention
dc.subject	Heterogeneity
dc.subject	Latent class survival models
dc.title	Predicting multi-cohorts’ customer retention using limited information	en
heal.type	conferenceItem
heal.generalDescription	ISSN Σειράς Πρακτικών: 1791 – 8499	el
heal.generalDescription	Proceedings Series: 1791 - 8499	en
heal.classification	Administration
heal.classification	Social sciences--Statistical methods
heal.classification	Διοίκηση και οργάνωση
heal.classification	Κοινωνικές επιστήμες Στατιστικές μέθοδοι
heal.classificationURI	http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh2002007910
heal.classificationURI	http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85124018
heal.classificationURI	N/A-Διοίκηση και οργάνωση
heal.classificationURI	N/A-Κοινωνικές επιστήμες Στατιστικές μέθοδοι
heal.contributorName	Φράγκος, Χρήστος Κ. (1949-) (επιμ.)	el
heal.language	en
heal.access	campus
heal.recordProvider	Τεχνολογικό Εκπαιδευτικό Ίδρυμα Αθήνας. Σχολή Διοίκησης και Οικονομίας. Τμήμα Διοίκησης Επιχειρήσεων. Κατεύθυνση Διοίκησης Επιχειρήσεων.	el
heal.publicationDate	2009-05
heal.bibliographicCitation	Giovanis, A., Frangos, C.C and Papathanasiou, D. (2009). Predicting multi-cohorts’ customer retention using limited information. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference: Quantitative and qualitative methodologies in the economic and administrative sciences. Athens, 25th to 27th May 2009. Athens: TEI of Athens. pp. 173-178.	en
heal.abstract	Customer churn and retention rates are considered as the most important indicators to CRM activities such as modeling customer valuation and budget allocation. Such models, which are trying to predict customer's survival rate, assume that churn rates are constant both over time and across customers. The current practice, however, have shown that these assumptions are not valid and are currently tested in a systematic manner. The practice shows that churn propensity vary dramatically across customers and over time; yet, most models do not account for such differences. This study takes under consideration a number of factors that may underlie customer retention patterns. Specifically a model of mobile services’ retention is developed that takes into account: duration dependence, cross-cohort effects, customer heterogeneity, and contractual obligation type. Moreover, a methodology is proposed that easily allows practitioners to evaluate the relative importance of each of these effects based on in-sample and out-of sample performance using limited information. Using a dataset from a major Greek telecommunication company concerning customers ’ gross additions for twelve months and the relevant disconnections for the same time period ahead, two models on aggregate data at the monthly level are tested. The proposed modeling approach reveals that the notion of a constant churn rate is rejected. The representation of customer’s retention process requires all the proposed components listed above towards improving the retention and churn rate forecasting performance.	en
heal.publisher	Τεχνολογικό Εκπαιδευτικό Ίδρυμα Αθήνας	el
heal.publisher	TEI of Athens	en
heal.fullTextAvailability	true
heal.conferenceName	2nd International Conference: Quantitative and Qualitative Methodologies in the Economic and Administrative Sciences	en
heal.conferenceItemType	full paper